Force Majeure
Epic Fury
Gulf War III has predictably thrown world energy markets into chaos.
Indian refiners fill about 40% of their crude needs through purchases from the Middle East. Nearly all (93%) of Qatar’s LNG exports are shipped via the Strait of Hormuz. With the Strait closed, QatarEnergy declared force majeure. This had knock-on effects on refiners and distributors.
In India,
Petronet LNG issued force majeure notices to customers like GAIL, IOC, and BPCL.
MRPL declared force majeure on fuel exports.
ONGC Petro Additions reported production constraints at its Dahej plant due to supplier force majeure.
Gujarat Gas Ltd reported reduced R-LNG imports.
Lower gas supplies have marginally affected production at fertilizer companies.
Many ceramic manufacturers in the Morbi cluster are facing shutdowns as natural gas and propane supplies are severely restricted.
The government invoked emergency powers and directed refiners to maximise production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to prevent a shortage of the cooking fuel.
While the US has granted India a 30-day waiver allowing it to buy Russian crude currently stranded at sea, our macro situation has a sword hanging over it.
A $10/barrel rise may reduce GDP growth by 0.5%. A severe increase, such as a $30/barrel rise, could potentially reduce GDP growth by 0.8 to 1.2 percentage points.
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, South Korea are among those badly hit.
Hopefully, Trump gets his “unconditional surrender” quickly and we can move on with our lives.
Qatar warns war will force Gulf to halt energy exports within weeks
India invokes emergency powers, orders refiners to boost LPG output
Indian gas firms restrict local supplies due to Middle East crisis
US grants 30-day waiver to India for buying Russian oil stuck at sea
India’s High Dependence On Oil Imports Raises Economic Risks
Markets this Week
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India
India’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in February as strong domestic demand drove new orders and production, although export growth cooled to its slowest rate in nearly a year-and-a-half (reuters).
RBI deploys $12 bln to defend rupee (reuters).
Vanguard begins insourcing, reverses part of Infosys’ largest outsourcing deal, while building its own tech GCC in Hyderabad (moneycontrol).
Andhra announces Rs 25,000 incentive for 2nd, 3rd child, along with monthly financial support of 1,000 for the third child for five years (indiatoday).
For Jharkhand’s Adivasis, the digitisation of land records is a new front of struggle. As ancestral holdings are shifted online – without consent or notification – families find their holdings mysteriously reduced, boundaries redrawn, and the fight to seek rectifications punishing (ruralindiaonline).
Karnataka Budget 2026 (beer edition):
Liquor prices in state no longer to be fixed by govt
taxes will be levied based on actual alcohol content rather than total volume
distilleries and breweries are now permitted 24-hour operations
row
The Kalshi prediction market was sued for failing to pay $54 million to people who bet that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1 (reuters).
A U.S. trade court judge on Wednesday ordered the government to begin paying potentially billions of dollars in refunds to importers who paid tariffs (reuters).
Private credit:
BlackRock fund limits withdrawals as redemptions rattle private credit (reuters).
Blackstone tapped some $150 million from more than 25 senior leaders to help it meet record withdrawals (bloomberg).
Dubbed the “Blue Owl saga,” a series of liquidity failures and redemption freezes at Blue Owl Capital Inc. has sent shockwaves through the non-bank lending sector, forcing investors to confront the reality of “shadow” defaults and the fragility of retail-targeted private debt funds (financialcontent).
Some private credit firms that borrow from retail investors may be embellishing their financial health (reuters).
A.I.
The Pentagon said it has formally notified Anthropic that it’s determined the company and its products pose a risk to the US supply chain (bloomberg).
Anthropic’s AI tool Claude central to U.S. campaign in Iran (washingtonpost).
Thousands in Kenya are reportedly seeing your most private moments you record on Meta’s Smart Glasses (timesofindia).
Meme of the Week
