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History seldom repeats

... and there is no "new" new.

Shyam Sunder
Sep 18, 2022
1
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History seldom repeats
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The macro backdrop couldn’t be more bearish for Indian markets but here we are.

The US Dollar and treasury yields shooting up triggered cataclysms in emerging markets in earlier rounds. Anybody who studied past “macro” patterns and went short Indian equities would’ve gone bankrupt by now.

Gold, forever pitched as an inflation hedge, has been runover by the rising dollar. Always a bridesmaid, never the bride.

INDA out-performing SPY in this environment is baffling. Watching Indian markets rally back to all-time highs must be one of the most painful trades in quite a while.

Markets this Week

Links

Energy

When Politicians Step into Heart of Pricing & Supply - watch out. (TRA)

EU physics denial has come home to roost. (boriquagato)

Twitter avatar for @ShellenbergerMD
Michael Shellenberger @ShellenbergerMD
The reason they must shut down nuclear plants is because if you have nuclear then there’s no justification for renewables or the $369 billion in subsidies/kickbacks they require.
forbes.comThe Real Reason They Hate Nuclear Is Because It Means We Don’t Need RenewablesThe problem with nuclear energy is that it doesn’t demand the radical re-making of society, like renewables do. All nuclear does is pay above average wages, decarbonize electricity, and produce cheap electricity. No wonder they hate it so much.
1:16 PM ∙ Sep 16, 2022
1,290Likes365Retweets

Germany – a country proactively shutting down nuclear power plants despite suffering a massive energy crisis – is back to burning wood for power on an enormous scale. (TRA)

Investing

Twitter avatar for @mjmauboussin
Michael Mauboussin @mjmauboussin
We have a new report out, "Market Share: Understanding Competitive Advantage Through Market Power"
1:52 PM ∙ Sep 15, 2022
244Likes36Retweets
Twitter avatar for @breakingthemark
Matt Hollerbach @breakingthemark
The underlying assumption here is that active managers are trying to beat the market. I'm not sure they really are. IMHO, the investing business is a version of "I don't have to outrun the tiger, I only have to out run you".
Twitter avatar for @TheStalwart
Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
This question prompted a lot of interesting replies, many of which state that the concept of efficient markets has been shown to be flawed. Which may be true on some level. But given the actual realized performance of so many active managers, doesn't it suggest EMH is legit? https://t.co/adYkDnuniF
1:03 PM ∙ Sep 16, 2022
Twitter avatar for @ecommerceshares
Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares
The key lesson from the Figma deal is that if you want to make $20 billion in six years, you need to go right for the core business of the big, BIG guys. Not for some sideshow market that’s barely ever made any money, where no big game exists. Go for the jugular of the big game.
9:07 PM ∙ Sep 15, 2022
496Likes33Retweets
Twitter avatar for @buccocapital
Bucco Capital @buccocapital
Here’s my point. FCF *by itself* is a dumb metric for SaaS Look for businesses that are being nailed by the market for poor fcf because they’re: - investing in growth - have good unit economics - operating in a large TAM - early in their lifecycle
11:28 PM ∙ Sep 12, 2022
72Likes5Retweets

Macro

Twitter avatar for @cullenroche
Cullen Roche @cullenroche
All the manufacturing surveys are showing the same trend - prices peaked in early 2022, right when the Fed started panicking about inflation.....
Image
5:43 PM ∙ Sep 15, 2022
91Likes13Retweets
Chartbook
Chartbook #151: Zugzwang - are we on the brink of a central banking paradigm shift?
Central banks around the world are under pressure. Surging prices stoke fears of inflation. Central bankers, who commonly define themselves as guardians of price stability, feel forced to react. Interest rates are their preferred tool. Higher rates take steam out of the economy. That should lower inflation. The price is pain for borrowers and the risk o…
Read more
4 months ago · 66 likes · Adam Tooze
Comment is Freed
Gradually, then Suddenly
The Ukrainian flag is raised again in Kupyansk “How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and well-equipped army can b…
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5 months ago · 118 likes · 49 comments · Lawrence Freedman

Meme of the Week

@discordspies

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