History seldom repeats

... and there is no "new" new.

The macro backdrop couldn’t be more bearish for Indian markets but here we are.

The US Dollar and treasury yields shooting up triggered cataclysms in emerging markets in earlier rounds. Anybody who studied past “macro” patterns and went short Indian equities would’ve gone bankrupt by now.

Gold, forever pitched as an inflation hedge, has been runover by the rising dollar. Always a bridesmaid, never the bride.

INDA out-performing SPY in this environment is baffling. Watching Indian markets rally back to all-time highs must be one of the most painful trades in quite a while.

Markets this Week

Links

Energy

When Politicians Step into Heart of Pricing & Supply - watch out. (TRA)

EU physics denial has come home to roost. (boriquagato)

Michael Shellenberger @ShellenbergerMD

The reason they must shut down nuclear plants is because if you have nuclear then there’s no justification for renewables or the $369 billion in subsidies/kickbacks they require.

forbes.comThe Real Reason They Hate Nuclear Is Because It Means We Don’t Need RenewablesThe problem with nuclear energy is that it doesn’t demand the radical re-making of society, like renewables do. All nuclear does is pay above average wages, decarbonize electricity, and produce cheap electricity. No wonder they hate it so much.

Germany – a country proactively shutting down nuclear power plants despite suffering a massive energy crisis – is back to burning wood for power on an enormous scale. (TRA)

Investing

Michael Mauboussin @mjmauboussin

We have a new report out, "Market Share: Understanding Competitive Advantage Through Market Power"

Matt Hollerbach @breakingthemark

The underlying assumption here is that active managers are trying to beat the market. I'm not sure they really are. IMHO, the investing business is a version of "I don't have to outrun the tiger, I only have to out run you".

Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart

This question prompted a lot of interesting replies, many of which state that the concept of efficient markets has been shown to be flawed. Which may be true on some level. But given the actual realized performance of so many active managers, doesn't it suggest EMH is legit? https://t.co/adYkDnuniF

Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

The key lesson from the Figma deal is that if you want to make $20 billion in six years, you need to go right for the core business of the big, BIG guys. Not for some sideshow market that’s barely ever made any money, where no big game exists. Go for the jugular of the big game.

Bucco Capital @buccocapital

Here’s my point. FCF *by itself* is a dumb metric for SaaS Look for businesses that are being nailed by the market for poor fcf because they’re: - investing in growth - have good unit economics - operating in a large TAM - early in their lifecycle

Macro

Cullen Roche @cullenroche

All the manufacturing surveys are showing the same trend - prices peaked in early 2022, right when the Fed started panicking about inflation.....

Chartbook #151: Zugzwang - are we on the brink of a central banking paradigm shift?

Gradually, then Suddenly

Meme of the Week

@discordspies