The Humble, Nimble and Hawkish Fed
The summit of Mt. Everest is marine limestone
Most of the trading volume in exchanges are driven by machines that don't care about time as we perceive it. We see the world through chrono-clocks, the year divided by days, days by hours, hours by minutes, minutes by seconds. However, machines trade through event-clocks: if x happens, do y. But most of our algorithms are still based on time-ticks.
This week, we dipped our toes into Volume Clocks. Will be interesting to see what shakes out.
Markets this Week
The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, reiterated that
QE stops in March
First rate in March
Second hike in June
QT via simple roll-off starting in Q3
3rd, maybe 4th hike
Indian markets took a spill but the US markets ended positive after a wild ride. We have the budget coming up on Feb 1st (Tuesday). Fingers crossed.
Links
Real U.S. yields in biggest monthly jump since 2013 taper tantrum (Reuters)
Baltic Dry Index continues to collapse and, with a 77% drawdown, is now below its pre-pandemic level (twitter)
The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Probably Not Real (McGill)
Sri Lanka to pay $200m compensation for failed organic farm drive (aljazeera)
Smoking is cool again. Maybe. (NYT)
