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The Roundtrip
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The Roundtrip

Landing hard

Shyam Sunder
May 15, 2022
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The Roundtrip
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In a span of a year, the Fed went from inflation being transitory to worrisome. And in the last couple of weeks, Powell has gone from promising a soft-landing to warning about a hard-landing.

To be fair, I was in Camp Transitory last year. It looked like a combination of COVID disrupted supply chains and people clicking on the buy-button when self-isolating lead to a spike in prices. But with economies opening up, it was widely believed, the invisible-hand would bring demand and supply to balance.

Then Putin invaded Ukraine and commodities mooned. China, not ready to give up on its Zero-COVID policy, is still busy locking down large cities. These put a stake through the heart of the “transitory” thesis.

supply and demand | Definition, Example, & Graph | Britannica

Price is simply where demand and supply meet. The problem right now is that the supply side of this equation can only be solved by governments - it is a geopolitical problem. This is a tall order even in the best of times.

The demand side, however, can be smashed down by central banks by raising rates. And this is what we have collectively chosen to do.

Jan 2022 Projections

Rates rising in a high-inflation environment has been a huge headwind to pretty much all asset classes. And is probably going to get much worse before it gets any better.

Post-Pandemic Indian equities and bonds
Post-Pandemic US equities and bonds

I hope we don’t roundtrip all the way back to April 2020 levels but given how aggressive the US Fed has become, it is not a zero-probability event.

Markets this Week

If you bought a stock for its pricing power, moat or non-cyclicality, now is a good time to go through their earnings-call transcripts and check how they are messaging about inflation.

Links

India April CPI @ 7.79%

Cullen Roche is doing God’s work putting up 3-minute youtube videos explaining money. Subscribe here!

The world will not be left short of oil even with lower output from sanctions-hit Russia. (reuters)

Human civilization is powered by combustion; human beings are a fossil fuel–burning civilization. You can take away the civilization part, which seems to be the end goal for some environmentalists, but bar that, you can’t take away the fossil fuel part.

How Politicians and Journalists Get Energy So Wrong

Twitter avatar for @alphaarchitect
Wes Gray 🇺🇸 @alphaarchitect
Pure price momentum is an odd duck. It's the one strategy where valuations just don't seem to matter that much. In short, it's arguably the ultimate diversifier to almost all "fundamental" based factors/strategies. Wonder what others think...
1:13 PM ∙ May 14, 2022
26Likes3Retweets

a low cost consumer friendly alternative to cable that destroyed an industry profit pool

It’s not really the unlimited pricing power / TAM expander juggernaut everyone proposed for the past decade

@BazCap on Netflix

Twitter avatar for @bedouincap
bedouin @bedouincap
3 phases of investor bro 1. Graham. Buffett. Cigar butts. <1x book value. 2. Terry Smith. Wonderful businesses. Quality. Compounders. 3. Capital Returns. Druck. Grant’s observer. “It’s all just flows man.”
6:17 AM ∙ Jan 13, 2022
605Likes47Retweets

Bitcoin, NFTs, SPACs, meme stocks — all those pandemic investment darlings are crashing. (latimes)

the IPO market is dead meaning there is no clear exit anymore while public market comparable companies have been crushed. Just look at payments - it was a big story that Stripe was marked down by 9%. Meanwhile, Paypal is down 60%. Square is down 54%. Adyen is down 54%. It’s a perfect encapsulation of private market insulation. Everyone knows Stripe is worth less, but as long as we all don’t say Stripe is worth less, we can pretend it’s not worth less.

Late Stage Prisoners Dilemma

Greek property sees increased demand from Chinese buyers seeking permanent residency under golden visa scheme. (scmp)

Meme of the Week

With shitcos, cryptos and techcos all crashing, we reached a new level of memes this week.

Twitter avatar for @EffMktHype
𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype
Raiders Of The Lost ARKK
11:59 AM ∙ May 10, 2022
668Likes145Retweets
Twitter avatar for @litcapital
litquidity @litcapital
Saving Capital Markets - coming soon to a theater near you
6:18 PM ∙ May 11, 2022
19,061Likes4,961Retweets
Twitter avatar for @TikTokInvestors
TTI @TikTokInvestors
She can save us.
7:07 PM ∙ May 13, 2022
1,651Likes325Retweets
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