Trend-following is easy...
... until you do it.
In Rob Carver’s Advanced Futures Trading Strategies (Amazon,) there’s a chapter, “Strategy Nine: Multiple Trend Following Rules,” that uses composite trend-following rules to drive a long-short strategy. We explored the strategy through an Indian market participant’s lens.
On the face of it, the approach sounded great. Trend-following is usually plagued with over-fitting and the no-magic approach sounded like salvation. However, it was not to be: Strategy 9.
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India
India’s second-largest two-wheeler company, Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI), wants to bring more of its global premium motorcycle models to India and localise them (livemint).
Amid a growing nationwide debate over E20 petrol, the Centre on Friday defended its ethanol-blending programme, assuring motorists that the fuel is safe for vehicles and does not cause engine damage or major performance issues (livemint). It has ruled out offering pure petrol, E10 and E20 simultaneously across India, saying maintaining multiple petrol grades would increase costs and create significant logistical challenges (autocarindia).
US Justice Department on Adani: “should have been dropped a year ago -- or never brought in the first place. The United States pretending to be the world police can cause diplomatic strife and also wastes resources better spent on domestic concerns.” (ndtv)
The RBI has reasserted a call for a cryptocurrency policy "leaning towards prohibition," while the country's tax department warned that trading via offshore exchanges is hard to track (reuters).
Maharashtra to treat Gutka manufacturers, transporters and sellers form an organised nexus, prompting the state to invoke MCOCA, a law typically reserved for terrorism and organised crime (ndtvprofit).
Japan has banned fresh mango imports from India, after the world’s biggest producer failed its pest-control checks (economist).
row
BlackRock to launch Nasdaq-100 ETF, challenging Invesco's dominance (reuters).
A Century of U.S. Stock Returns: Expect the Unexpected (ofdollarsanddata).
There is no investing strategy that really constitutes “doing nothing” (behaviouralinvestment).
Western housing shortages do not just prevent many from ever affording their own home. They also drive inequality, climate change, low productivity growth, obesity, and even falling fertility rates (worksinprogress).
Baby boomers are expected to pass $36 trillion to their heirs in the next two decades. The bulk of that money will flow to people who are worth far more than the average. And that means much of it will be saved or invested, rather than spent. (washingtonpost).
The Pentagon was funded with a budget of nearly a trillion dollars, but it is running out of cash (nbcnews).
U.S.-imposed oil blockade has crippled Cuba’s electric grid (reuters).
In Europe, for two decades, capital has been abundant and cheap, and corporate profits strong; yet investment, productivity, and wages have stalled. The binding constraint on growth has not been the price of labor, but the allocation of capital (socialeurope).
All this insurance that European states are committed to providing was implicitly backed by the promise of future growth. And that growth is no longer expected to materialize, but the promises remain.
Europe chose insurance. America chose growth. (thetwocents)
China's gig economy has become a crucial employment buffer as the property crisis wipes out construction jobs and manufacturers shed workers through automation and cost-cutting amid tariffs, overcapacity and price wars (reuters).
Despite widespread layoffs justified by AI reallocation, studies indicate AI is economically viable in only a fraction of roles. The unsustainable model of subsidized AI pricing is unwinding, forcing a market correction (forbes).
Meme of the Week
