Walking away from Omelas

Will you stay or will you go?

"The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas" is a 1973 work of short philosophical fiction by American writer Ursula K. Le Guin (Wikipedia).

Omelas is a shimmering city of unbelievable happiness and delight. Omelas has no kings, soldiers, priests, or slaves. Everything about Omelas is abundantly pleasing. Its citizens are intelligent, sophisticated, and cultured.

Except for its one dirty secret: The city's constant state of serenity and splendor requires that a single unfortunate child be kept in perpetual filth, darkness, and misery.

Once citizens are old enough to know the truth, most, though initially shocked and disgusted, ultimately acquiesce to this one injustice that secures the happiness of the rest of the city. However, some citizens, young and old, walk away from the city after seeing the child. Each is alone, and no one knows where they go, but none come back.

Will you walk away from Omelas or will you stay?

Markets this Week

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday said the central bank is committed to raising rates "expeditiously" to bring down inflation. A 50bps hike in May is mostly a lock.

Indian inflation numbers were also ugly. Looks like the RBI will have to bite the bullet and raise rates sooner and faster than what they have been telegraphing.

Markets everywhere puked.

The last few months have not been kind for non-profitable “disruption” tech. The ARKK ETF that mostly bought those kind of stocks has been chopped more than half. But this week, the Generals (FANGMAN - Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia) got shot.

Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond

Tech Drawdowns TDOC -81% RIVN -81% ROKU -80% SHOP -75% ZM -75% PLTR -74% PYPL -73% TWLO -72% NFLX -71% SQ -65% COIN -65% SNOW -57% FB -53% UBER -52% CRM -45% NVDA -43% WDAY -33% AMZN -23% MSFT -21% GOOGL -21% TSLA -19% AAPL -11% vs. Value BRK -7% v @BearTrapsReport

And no, India is not going to be unaffected by the goings on in the US. There is no “decoupling” to be had. Brace yourself.

Links

Tar ⚡ @itsTarH

Edible oil is about to get a whole lot expensive Three giant producers of edible oil 🇮🇩 Indonesia - Banned exports 🇦🇷 Argentina - Raised export tax 🇺🇦 Ukraine - Suffering from War

Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

BofA says massive US equity outflows are just getting started, even after the biggest weekly withdrawal from the funds since Feb. 2018, of nearly $20 billion. BofA analysts point to the Fed's response to “extreme inflation." “75 basis points is the new 25 basis points.”

Shrubbery Stagflation Capital 🌳🇺🇦 @agnostoxxx

Weekly Flow data (source: BAML): - US stocks: $19bn OUTFLOWS (largest since Feb 18) - EM stocks: +$2.5bn - Materials: +$2.9bn - Credit: -$8.7bn outflows - Cash: $55bn outflow (to where?) BAML: “Everyone bearish, but redemptions just starting” @gnoble79

Shrubbery Stagflation Capital 🌳🇺🇦 @agnostoxxx

Weekly Flow data update (source: BAML): - US stocks: $1.5bn inflows - EM stocks: big inflow $5.3bn - Credit: -$1.4bn outflows - Cash: $7.5bn outflow Most interesting: US large caps $4.6bn inflows, U.S. growth +$0.1bn Vs US Value $2.5bn OUTFLOW @gnoble79 https://t.co/iurlCpLhdE

ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx

#Fed Funds Rate: The #futures market is now fully pricing in 50bp rate #hikes at each of the next 3 meetings, orange: 2.44%, Dec 2022, red: 2.19%, Nov 2022, chart @BloombergTV

Kris @KrisAbdelmessih

@eyemightbewrong Asset management is the vitamin industry. Sell noise as signal and provide placebos. The difference is the asset managers fool themselves.

Three Reasons Inflation Could Be Near A Peak (lplresearch)

A prolonged China slowdown raises risks for global economy, IMF chief says (reuters)

Europe car sales plunge 19% in March (bloomberg)

23 nations can expect their populations to halve by 2100 (FT)

Community Input Is Bad, Actually (theatlantic)

The Trouble with FIRE (rationalreflections)

Meme of the Week